So, here we go. The first one to watch of the new era. Revamped and ready to go, let’s get down to the nitty gritty. This one’s a bit of a tough one. My overarching bias (fundamentally) right now is long dollar. I can’t see anything other than a stronger dollar medium term (that is, anywhere between now and the end of the first quarter next year) for a number of reasons. US political uncertainty and the risk off sentiment that comes with it. The potential for an interest rate hike before the year draws to a close. Brexit and sterling turmoil translating to greenback safe haven. Euro struggles. The list goes on.
With that said, those reading who have followed along for a while now will know I don’t let this sort of fundamental bias influence my entries. If the signal strikes, get in and set up.
The chart below highlights one such setup.
To some degree, a fundamental bias such as the one I hold right now in the dollar (that is, one so strongly bullish) might influence my aggression on the trade. With this one, for example, I’m looking long EURUSD on what looks to be setting up as a bullish pin on the daily.
My downside is – as always – limited by the pin bar’s tail. My upside, however, is a little more flexible. A couple of potential targets look valid here: 1.105 and 1.1 flat.
If I do enter this, if it closes out as a valid signal, I’ll probably look to enter towards the shorter target in line with my struggling to get behind any long term euro strength.
Let’s see how things play out.
I’ll update on entry.